City of Coral Gables: Check Your Reserves For Hurricane Response

April 6, 2011 Leave a comment

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2011

(Philip J. Klotzbach & William M. Gray: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2011/april2011/apr2011.pdf )

ABSTRACT:

As of 6 April 2011, it is foreseen a well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic-Caribbean cyclonic season. The seasonal forecast has been reduced slightly from early December, since there is a little uncertainty about ENSO and the maintenance of an anomalously warm tropical Atlantic SST conditions. It is possible to continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

Information obtained through March 2011 indicates that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will have significantly more activity than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2011 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 16 named storms (average is 9.6), 80 named storm days (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 10 major hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2011 to be approximately 175 percent of the long-term average. We have decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from early December, due to anomalous warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and cooling in the tropical Atlantic. This forecast is based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 29 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We expect current La Niña conditions to transition to near-neutral conditions during the heart of the hurricane season. Overall, conditions remain conducive for a very active hurricane season.

Filed under Budget, Coral Gables, Environment, Finance

For Whom I Would NOT Vote In The Coral Gables Election

March 26, 2011 1 Comment

Following a process of elimination, I would not vote for the following:

I would not vote for Mr. Slesnick.  He has had 10 years in government and has led to city to its present state.  We lived with a corrupt and unethical city manager, we had taxes increased even in bad times, we saw the virtual collapse of the Country Club and, of course, we have the still secret audit of the Biltmore lease, and unrestrained support for city unions and pensions.  Add to this a poorly run IT Department and EDEN software, a weak Finance Department and a widely criticized Building and Zoning Department.  You have  here a good number of reasons to end the Slesnick Era.

I would not vote for Mr. Rosenblatt.  His program is to continue more of the same with lots of sponding on rehabilitating Miracle Mile (where he has a business), settle the Biltmore lease and keeping taxes low.  I am glad to know that taxes are low and, presumably, potentially could be raised just a little more in the future.

I would not vote for Mr. Sanabria.  He is supported by the Fraternity of Police who are completely and virgorously defending the benefits of good salaries and even better pensions that they have acquired over the years with the acquiescence of the mayor and city commission.   I don’t believe that Mr. Sanabria can be counted on to defend the voters against more taxes and fees.

We need three strong votes against more taxes for the future–we will not get them from Commissioners Anderson, Kerdyk and candidate Sanabria, so electing Mr. Sanabria would be budgetary lethal for the taxpayers of Coral Gables.

I might not vote for Mr. Kedyk.  I don’t see that he has contributed any heroic measures to the city (I know that many don’t agree with that view), and he has clearly voted for taxes, but not as many taxes as Mr. Slesnick might desire, nor more than Mr. Cabrera would have wanted.  The facts are that he has consistently voted for taxes.  He never raised a voice against the former city manager, had no problem to approve the UM Grid and he has been relatively quiet about the Biltmore, the Country Club and similar issues.  He is not a reformer and we need real reforms in the organization and financial management of the city of Coral Gables.  Almost certainly he will be elected so one should be careful about the other candidates that you vote for, if you want real reform and to reduce your taxes.

I might not vote for Mr. Quesada.  He appears to be a nice enough fellow, but he is a totally unknown quantity in the city.  He seems like the continuation of the Slesnick-Kerdick-Withers coalition and  the business-led support for the unbridled commercial growth of the city, which sucks in police, fire protection and other resources away from the residents and taxpayers who are having a hard time paying their taxes and fees.

Filed under Budget, Coral Gables, Election, Employees and Unions, Finance, Government, Politics, Taxes and Fees

Jeb has the Solution for Coral Gables: Wake Up Unions!

January 18, 2011 Leave a comment

Dear Commissioners, Unions and Mayor of Coral Gables:  Please read this quote from Jeb Bush.

Jeb is ahead of the others on what to do, and this will be the final result if unions continue with their hardline positions.

There must be found an intermediate solution if the unions will just work with the city and that the public security employees give up making wild claims about there special and indispensable role in the community.

So new Republican governors should adopt rules for countercyclical budgeting and fully funded pensions? Too timid, Mr. Bush says. “I would argue for the elimination of the defined-benefit pension system. Might as well just get right to the end of the conversation, that’s where this is all going.” Then, “figure out a creative way to deal with the unfunded liabilities.” That “means you have to take on the unions.” He notes that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has so far “shown that you can take on these entrenched interests and be popular and sustain the efforts to change the state.”

via Jeb Bush: Eliminate ‘defined-benefit pension system’ | Florida Independent: News. Politics. Media.

Filed under Budget, Coral Gables, Pensions

Coral Gables Pensions: Information to Confuse

January 5, 2011 Leave a comment

Thanks to Jackie Bueno Sousa for her succinct appraisal of Coral Gables’ annual financial coverup of the true financial disaster created by our commissioners and city managers. (Please see A CITY AGENDA page above for a few minimal changes in local government.)

Say that you’re among the few who bother to actually read the city’s annual financial report each year. You’d get all kinds of data about its pension program. Some of it is clearly outlined: the number of people receiving benefits, fund balances, contribution amounts and funding ratios.

Here’s what the report won’t tell you in plain, clear language: The city has been underfunding its pension plan for years. It now has an actuarial unfunded liability of more than $160 million.

Here’s what else it won’t tell you: Either major changes need to be made to the program or taxpayers probably will have to start kicking in more money — either by paying higher taxes or taking on more debt through bonds.

via A transparent government isn’t necessarily a direct one – Jackie Bueno Sousa – MiamiHerald.com.

Filed under Budget, Coral Gables, Finance

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