City of Coral Gables: Check Your Reserves For Hurricane Response

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2011

(Philip J. Klotzbach & William M. Gray: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2011/april2011/apr2011.pdf )

ABSTRACT:

As of 6 April 2011, it is foreseen a well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic-Caribbean cyclonic season. The seasonal forecast has been reduced slightly from early December, since there is a little uncertainty about ENSO and the maintenance of an anomalously warm tropical Atlantic SST conditions. It is possible to continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

Information obtained through March 2011 indicates that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will have significantly more activity than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2011 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 16 named storms (average is 9.6), 80 named storm days (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 10 major hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2011 to be approximately 175 percent of the long-term average. We have decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from early December, due to anomalous warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and cooling in the tropical Atlantic. This forecast is based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 29 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We expect current La Niña conditions to transition to near-neutral conditions during the heart of the hurricane season. Overall, conditions remain conducive for a very active hurricane season.

About Stephen E. McGaughey
International consultant in economic development programs and projects

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