Commissioner Kerdyk is Right

There is plenty to worry about in the prices of houses in Miami-Dade and Coral Gables.  Even if we live in Coral Gables, there is little chance that our house prices will coming bounding back or that the city will get in inflow of tax revenues from higher property values.  Forget that notion for several years.  I think that in these times higher millage rates discourage real estate sales for most buyers.

The slide in U.S. home prices may have another three years to go as sellers add as many as 12 million more properties to the market.

Shadow inventory — the supply of homes in default or foreclosure that may be offered for sale — is preventing prices from bottoming after a 28 percent plunge from 2006, according to analysts from Moody’s Analytics Inc., Fannie Mae, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. Those properties are in addition to houses that are vacant or that may soon be put on the market by owners.

via U.S. Home Prices Face Three-Year Drop as Supply Gains (Update1) – Bloomberg.com.

International Economic Risks for Coral Gables

This is one more of the big risks for the US and world economy.

European bond markets are again delivering a chilling message to global policymakers. With bonds of “peripheral” eurozone nations continuing to fall in value, the risk of Irish, Greek, and Portuguese sovereign defaults is higher than ever.

via Brady Bonds For the Eurozone – Project Syndicate.

What I Learned during the Budget Hearing Tonight

I  learned a few things from the Commission meeting today.

  • The Director of Finance sings the same song every year, and he has for many years.  “We have a great millage rate.”  “We really need the money.”  “We are a great city that needs the money.”  “Don’t worry, Miami-Dade is taking a much bigger share of the rate so our tax rate isn’t that bad, really.”
  • The City Manager has a plan to reorganize, restructure and right size the city’s government.  [I wonder what is the plan and whether we, the citizens, hear about it in more detail.]
  • The City Manager feels that the employees have sacrificed a lot and when the economy comes back the sacrifices can be rectified. [Many citizens think it is the taxpayers that have been sacrificing, rather than the employees.  Maybe the Manager is just playing up to his staff.]
  • One Commissioner reminded us that employees haven’t received salary adjustments for a couple of years.  [I am personally reminded that there is been literally no inflation for two years, so their salaries haven’t gone down in real terms for two years.]
  • Mr. Kerdyk said that there are 1,000 housing units in “pre-foreclosure” out of 16,000 so times are really, really, tough for the community.
  • The City Manager said that there are plenty of candidates for the jobs of police and firefighters.  [Economics tells you that we don’t have to pay the police and firefighters as much in these conditions–supply and demand.]
  • There are 7 police officers and 2 lieutenants positions that are unfilled and will mostly remain so as a financial buffer.
  • The reserves have taken a huge hit because of the FEMA double billing debacle.  We just have $3.3 million after repaying FEMA.
  • I have the feeling that the City Manager and the Commissioners are praying for a strong economic recovery as a way of digging out of the financial mess. [The City Manager said we have a financial mess (in so many words).  Don’t count on a strong economic recovery.
  • Nothing, nothing was said about the Biltmore.  [Maybe, I missed it.]

Coral Gables Property Tax Rate

In a First Reading, the Commission approved a millage rate of 6.072.  The Mayor, Commissioners Anderson and Withers in favor and Commissioners Kerdyk and Cabrera against.  This is below the so-called rollback rate of 6.18 because you need four votes in favor to go above the 6.072 rate.  The Mayor argued for a higher rate to the (not quite so bitter) end.