Economic Outlook: Joseph Stiglitz

I just viewed an interview with the economist Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Prize in Economics in the PBS Nightly Business Report.

He said the following:

  • Unless there is another stimulus package the economy will take three to five years (optimistically) to recover;
  • Unemployment will continue high, in the range of 8.5% to 9.5% during this period;
  • There are risks that the European countries undertake restrictive economic policies that will hurt the US economy;
  • More needs to be done to help with foreclosure problem;
  • More needs to be done to get credit to small and medium enterprises.

It is essential that Coral Gables leaders be realistic about the economic future and its impact on taxes and budgets.

This would be done through a recommended  LONG-RANGE FINANCIAL PLAN.

House Prices Rising, but Not as Fast

This is the correct interpretation of the so-called rise in home prices.  They have been rising year-to-year but this rate is now falling.

I note the Mayor Slesnick’s relatively rosy view yesterday of real estate (could be questioned first because of his relationship to a local real estate company) in which he points out that prices have only fallen 25 to 30 percent and that sales are continuing (to rise?) in Coral Gables.   We are not New York or Washington, D.C. were prices have been more stable than South Florida.

I suggest that you not buy into the mayor’s more optimistic view of the real estate markets.

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose at a slower pace in July from a year earlier as the end of a government tax credit hurt sales.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 3.2 percent from July 2009, the smallest year-over-year gain since March, the group said today in New York. The gauge is a three- month average, which means the July data are still being influenced by transactions in May and June that may have benefitted from the incentive.

via Home Prices in U.S. Recede as Tax Credit Expiration Hurt Sales – Bloomberg.com.

Miami House Price Index

Note the housing index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) for the Miami metropolitan area showing here the 1st Quart of 2007 at an index level of 413.78 and to the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2010 at 235.04.  In other words, the index in 2010 is 56 percent of that of 2007.

An index level of 235 is about where the level was in 2003.  You can get a ton of information at the FHFA.

The following information is by year and quarter.

33124 “Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)” 2007 1 413.78 414.24 (1st Quarter 2007)

33124 “Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)” 2007 2 415.63 414.15

33124 “Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)” 2007 3 404.47 403.32

33124 “Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)” 2007 4 400 397.21

33124 “Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)” 2008 1 365.42 365.89

33124 “Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)” 2008 2 327.92 326.92

33124 “Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)” 2008 3 292.38 291.5

33124 “Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)” 2008 4 269.27 267.23

33124 “Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)” 2009 1 228.18 228.53

33124 “Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)” 2009 2 235.25 234.69

33124 “Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)” 2009 3 244.22 243.31

33124 “Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)” 2009 4 235.79 233.94

33124 “Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)” 2010 1 233.86 234.33

33124 “Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (MSAD)” 2010 2 235.47 235.04 (2nd Quarter 2010)

Commissioner Kerdyk is Right

There is plenty to worry about in the prices of houses in Miami-Dade and Coral Gables.  Even if we live in Coral Gables, there is little chance that our house prices will coming bounding back or that the city will get in inflow of tax revenues from higher property values.  Forget that notion for several years.  I think that in these times higher millage rates discourage real estate sales for most buyers.

The slide in U.S. home prices may have another three years to go as sellers add as many as 12 million more properties to the market.

Shadow inventory — the supply of homes in default or foreclosure that may be offered for sale — is preventing prices from bottoming after a 28 percent plunge from 2006, according to analysts from Moody’s Analytics Inc., Fannie Mae, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. Those properties are in addition to houses that are vacant or that may soon be put on the market by owners.

via U.S. Home Prices Face Three-Year Drop as Supply Gains (Update1) – Bloomberg.com.