Impact of the Economic Stimulus Program

The economic stimulus program (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009–ARRA) is estimated to have the following nontrivial impacts by the independent CBO.  Thus it should have been much larger and not smaller, as some have suggested.

…CBO [Congressional Budget Office] estimates that in the second quarter of calendar year 2010, ARRA’s policies:

Raised the level of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 1.7 percent and 4.5 percent,

Lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points,

Increased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million, and

Increased the number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs by 2.0 million to 4.8 million compared with what those amounts would have been otherwise. (Increases in FTE jobs include shifts from part-time to full-time work or overtime and are thus generally larger than increases in the number of employed workers.)

via Director’s Blog » Blog Archive » Estimated Impact of the Stimulus Package on Employment and Economic Output.

More on the US Economy: Fodder for the City of Coral Gables

These comments Gavyn Davies of the Financial Time suggests that there are many signs of danger for a sluggish economy and greater pressure on the central bank (Federal Reserve) to expand the money supply and the economy.

I am becoming increasingly concerned about the extent of the slowdown which is now underway in the US economy, a trend which has not yet been fully recognised by the Federal Reserve. Admittedly, some decline in the growth rate was always inevitable at this stage of the cycle, because the large boosts to growth stemming from the upswing in inventories and from fiscal stimulus were certain to lose momentum about now. But the pick up in more sustainable sources of growth, notably consumers’ expenditure and capital investment, has so far been more anaemic than I had hoped, and the improvement in the labour market may be going into reverse…

via US economy is slowing more than the Fed has recognised | Gavyn Davies | FT.com.

Higher Property Taxes in a Housing Recession

This is not a good formula for Coral Gables’ taxpayers.  We need help from the City of Coral Gables.

Higher property taxes will drive housing prices even lower because buyers will be scared off by this city’s taxes and fees.

“Home sales were eye-wateringly weak in July,” said economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics. “It is becoming abundantly clear that the housing market is undermining the already faltering wider economic recovery. With an increasingly inevitable double-dip in housing prices yet to come, things could get a lot worse.”

via Double-dip in housing prices may be around the corner – Aug. 24, 2010.

FYI: Status Procedures for Negotiations with Teamsters and Employees

Citing the Public Employees Relations Commission, Florida (PERC)  Handbook

After Special Master Proceedings

Upon issuance of the special master’s recommended decision, the parties are required to discuss it and accept or reject each recommended item within twenty days. Specific rejected items must be settled by vote of the public employer’s legislative body (for example, a board of county commissioners or a school board) unless the parties reach agreement before the legislative body meets. Each negotiating party makes recommendations to the legislative body, a public hearing is held, and the legislative body then takes the action it thinks is in the best interest of all concerned on each issue before it.

After this legislative action, a proposed collective bargaining agreement is drawn up containing those issues agreed upon in negotiations and the disputed impasse items which were resolved by the public employer’s legislative body. If this proposed agreement is ratified, the matter ends with a collective bargaining agreement. If not, the action taken on the disputed impasse issues is implemented and remains in effect for the rest of that fiscal year. On all other issues, the employer and employee organization are under duty to return to negotiations.