International Economic Risks for Coral Gables

This is one more of the big risks for the US and world economy.

European bond markets are again delivering a chilling message to global policymakers. With bonds of “peripheral” eurozone nations continuing to fall in value, the risk of Irish, Greek, and Portuguese sovereign defaults is higher than ever.

via Brady Bonds For the Eurozone – Project Syndicate.

Don’t Tighten Economic Policies Too Soon

There are many articles about the threat of a double-dip recession and the danger to react with the wrong policies now.  The example of Japan’s lost-15 years is mentioned by the author of the FT article and highlights that the government and monetary authorities were too slow to react to sluggish growth and underestimated the effort that was needed to overcome many years of off-and-on growth.

There are three dangers right now that could hurt the world economy–1) the European debt crisis; 2) countries effecting fiscal and monetary restrictions too soon; and 3) slow growth across many countries increase unemployment.

Conclusion:  monetary and fiscal authorities should not be too quick to deal with fiscal (deficit) and monetary growth (potential inflation) concerns until growth is re-established.

via FT.com / Markets / Insight – Japanese lessons on ill-timed fiscal tightening.

A Historical View of Invading Afghanistan

I believe this is a different view of the Afghanistan war than we hear everyday in the news.  It comes from someone with a historical, regional view from India, a former very senior minister there.  This is something to think hard about given the considerable costs to the US of this undertaking and it is worth knowing the views of others, agree with them, or not.

..it now seems clear to anyone with eyes that the invasion of Afghanistan was built upon a great miscalculation: that Afghanistan can be successfully invaded.

Throughout history, such undertakings have always floundered. The country may, perhaps, be occupied for a time, but only temporarily; it cannot be conquered. The realization of this historical truth…is now troubling today’s invaders.

via The March of Folly in Afghanistan – Project Syndicate.

A Realistic Take on the Iraq War

This is taking along historical perspective.  It would seem that we might have made things worse and consolidated the influence of Iran in the area. We are facing the same issue in Afghanistan.

…the Iraq war has unleashed a new wave of sectarian hatred and upset the Persian Gulf’s strategic balance, helping Iran consolidate its role as the dominant regional power.

via So, Who Won the War in Iraq? Iran – Council on Foreign Relations.