Salerno has a Good Financial Plan, or Not?

According to his very brief presentation at the 2nd Budget Hearing, the city manager said he is right-sizing (his favorate words, it seems) the City of Coral Gables so that when the economy comes back the city can retake a better financial path.

This is where his plan is not that clear.  Will the city take advantage of increased revenues from rising property values (values go up and we pay more taxes) to make up for delays in capital projects, or will the city take advantage of its rightsizing (=downsizing) to keep property taxes low for us all when the economy comes back.  Will the city retake its historical path of paying too much, increasing merit pay and making inflation adjustments.

These are fair questions because so far the evidence is that when property values go up, our taxes go up; and when property values go down, our taxes go up.  Can the city commissioners work to get our property taxes to stay the same at the very least.

I see us on a long-term path of constantly rising property taxes in Coral Gables to pay for two items–pensions and health care for active employees and pensioners.  No amount of pension reform, no matter how good, will reduce the existing committed unfunded liability.

Does anyone have evidence to the contrary?

House Prices Rising, but Not as Fast

This is the correct interpretation of the so-called rise in home prices.  They have been rising year-to-year but this rate is now falling.

I note the Mayor Slesnick’s relatively rosy view yesterday of real estate (could be questioned first because of his relationship to a local real estate company) in which he points out that prices have only fallen 25 to 30 percent and that sales are continuing (to rise?) in Coral Gables.   We are not New York or Washington, D.C. were prices have been more stable than South Florida.

I suggest that you not buy into the mayor’s more optimistic view of the real estate markets.

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose at a slower pace in July from a year earlier as the end of a government tax credit hurt sales.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 3.2 percent from July 2009, the smallest year-over-year gain since March, the group said today in New York. The gauge is a three- month average, which means the July data are still being influenced by transactions in May and June that may have benefitted from the incentive.

via Home Prices in U.S. Recede as Tax Credit Expiration Hurt Sales – Bloomberg.com.

6.07 millage rate approved

This millage rate is higher than last year’s rate.  The vote was 3-2 with Kerdyk and Cabrera “no”.

Many people will pay more than last year with this higher millage rate.  This is less than the so-called roll back rate of 6.17 that the majority of the commission wanted to approve. (The roll back rate gives the city the same revenue as last year–this assumes that last year’s revenue was the “right” amount: it was way too high for some.)

UM–City of Coral Gables Development Agreement

I  have followed the discussion with great interest as a neighbor of UM.

Due to the size and complexity of the plan it is really hard to know what the process will look like over 20 years.  But, clearly, we are getting the equivalent of an quasi-active commercial district along Ponce de Leon in front of the UM.  Also, UM will be constructing a health facility–a “health facility” about the size of Doctors Hospital.

This plan gives UM a lot of latitude to organize its future without negotiating every detail with the City of Coral Gables.   The agreement allows for the city manager to approve a lot of changes in the future, and it is hoped that we will always have a good city manager and strong boards.  The city will get $1 million per year, which recognizes that the city does have costs by having UM here.

All in all, this is a good agreement.